Preços: Determinando o valor de mercado de uma villa

According to reports, market analysis, and the economists, agents, buyers, and notaires we consulted, the majority of French Riviera villa properties listed at over €1 million are listed at unrealistic prices and are sitting on the market until the seller lowers the price to be much lower than others on the market, with the average selling price being around 70% under original asking in 2023 to 2025. Sound crazy? Here’s why.

The French Riviera is a buyer’s market, and has been since 2008 (with the exception of the Covid real estate bubble). It became even more so starting in 2023 onward to now (and will be for many years to come) due to many factors, including foreign buyers instead purchasing homes in their domicile countries, and the French government actively disincentivizing second home purchasing. That means that, as a buyer, you have a lot of bargaining power, if you can negotiate directly from the owner. (You can request the owner’s contact info from the government.)

Always remember: The agent, the notaire, and any contractor who works with either of them, all have one goal: to sell you a villa at the highest price possible, as fast as possible. This is how they get paid the most, with the least work. For this reason, it's very important that you don't trust their pricing advice.

Como responder 'Qual é o seu orçamento?'

Since so many properties are dramatically overpriced, the best way to answer this question is to say this: “We don’t have a budget. We will pay market value. We will pay for two appraisals (one by our bank’s recommended appraiser) and will base our offer on those. So show us everything that matches what we’re looking for and we’ll deal with the offer price once we find one we like.” Then, you will craft your offer by following the below guide.

Why There’s So Much Extreme Overpricing

“This is a good price and we’ve had a lot of interest. At this price, this villa will sell very quickly. You have to decide right away!”, real estate agents often say (here’s a list of more dishonest things that real estate agents might tell you), hoping to rush you into buying an overpriced villa. However, it is not uncommon for the buyer to realize that this was just a high-pressure sales tactic and that the villa is still for sale months (or even years) later, usually because it’s extremely overpriced.

There are several phenomena specific to this area that encourage sellers to list their properties for 3x to 8x (or more) higher than its actual value…

Agencies Who Overvalue

Real estate agencies tell sellers that they can sell their property for muito more than it's actually worth just to secure the listing for their agency. Owners tend to list with the agent that says they can get the most money for them — and it becomes a sort of bidding war between agents who want to secure the listing with their agency. Who would you sign with: the agent who promises to get you €8 million for your villa, the one who tells you they think it’s worth €3 million, or the one who tells you it’s actually only worth €1.2 million?

The result is that villas typically get listed for sale at two to five times what they are actually worth (and what 99% of buyers would be willing to pay).

Many owners end up associating the asking price of the house with their self-worth (it makes people feel like they’re doing OK in life when they’re convinced their house is worth many millions), so it’s hard for them to come to grips with reality.

Many agents also greatly inflate the m² in the listing, to justify the price, since there’s no law that requires villa listings to have accurate m². Then the villa simply sits on the market for years until the seller lowers the price, often several times.

Investors Who Don’t Care

Another phenomenon specific to the French Riviera real estate market: Wealthy investors get agents to list the villas they own at prices that are many times higher that they are worth, on the off-chance that a wealthy person from Monaco (who has not done their research, or does not care about the price) will make a mistake and buy it — then they’ll use the sale money to buy 2 or 3 similar villas and pocket the remaining money.

These owners often own multiple villas which they use for income generation (they rent them out for the summer season). In some estimations, this accounts for almost 40% of villas on the French Riviera! These owners don't really care if their villa sells, and they certainly aren't interested in selling it at market value.

The good news is that the French government is actively trying to disincentivize this sort of investment purchasing, in an attempt to make housing more affordable. This year they added new and cumbersome taxes for second homes (which impacts almost 40% of villas on the French Riviera) and are actively thinking up other ways to disincentivize house-flipping, foreign investment purchases, AirBnb rentals, and vacation homes. You can 100% expect more of this in the future. (Learn more about this in our market predictions guide.)

Memories of Russians

Another phenomenon affecting the French Riviera real estate market, is the hope that silly-spending Russian buyers will eventually come back. After 2014, Russian buying dramatically decreased, and this area felt the fallout. And yet many French Riviera sellers are defiantly holding out hope, waiting for the Russians to come back — someday. But, due to the invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions and seizures, this isn’t going to happen. Read our supplementary guia para russos e seu impacto on the French Riviera real estate market for more about this.

Legal Tax Avoidance

And yet another reason that some property owners list their property for sale without actually wanting to sell it (hence, listing it at a crazy price they think nobody will pay for it), is for legal tax evasion. As long as a villa is listed for sale, the owner is exempt from several expensive property taxes! This applies to non-primary residences, of which the French Riviera has in abundance (almost 40% of villas here fall into this category). Agencies embrace this phenomenon because they can point to these listings as a (false) indicator of where the market is at. They call them “ghost listings”.

Also, when you hold on to a villa for at least 5 years, the taxes are significantly lower when you sell. This encourages sellers to list at ridiculously high asking prices until they hit that 5 year mark. The taxes also decrease after 10 and 22 years.

3 Markets in One

The French Riviera is três mercados em um: private, off-market, and publicly listed. Any publicly listed villa has first been on the private market and then off-market. Each of these stages have different pricing — especially the last stage, where the pricing gets dramatically inflated.

Mercado 1: O Mercado Privado. First, sellers try to sell without using an agent. Across France, over 50% of all villas are sold privately, but on the French Riviera this is closer to 75% of villa sales. Many of these are sold to friends-of-friends or via social media posts, etc. As a buyer, this is definitely the best way to buy. You can make a pedido para obter informações de propriedade de qualquer villa.

Mercado 2: Fora do mercado. If they couldn’t sell private, then they list with an agent. A large percentage of villas are sold ‘off-market’ by the agent without being listed publicly on the Internet. Many of these get sold to developers before regular buyers even get to see them.

Mercado 3: Listado publicamente. If nobody wants to buy the villa, then agents list it publicly on the internet. (Learn more in our guide to agents.) These villas –the ones that are publicly listed– are always very overpriced and/or have something seriously wrong with them, which is why they didn’t already sell. They usually sit on the market for years, until the owner gives up or sells privately. Keep this in mind.

Falsified Average Pricing

The average pricing per town is falsely inflated and not based on the true sold prices. See our guide to this phenomenon and read more below:

Important: Multiple Reasons Why You Should Ignore m2 Pricing

In France, m² is a scam used to try to move pricing upwards.

Há tanto a dizer sobre isso, que fizemos um separado oriente tudo sobre preço médio por m² and how the m² listed in DVF is, in fact, a complete scam.

Unfortunately, without the real m² size, you can’t calculate the correct m² pricing (this is also why the government website has incorrect m² pricing averages). This benefits the notaires and agents, since they’re paid on % commission, but can seriously harm buyers.

Luckily, it’s not often that a buyer is suckered because most need a mortgage (especially to avoid the wealth tax), and the bank will always require a professional valuation (however, some of these valuators are lazy and rely on the fraudulent and incorrect m² averages, so make sure yours knows how to correctly find the market value).

Keep in mind that price will also vary widely depending on the area within a town. For example, Ezé is much more expensive if you’re looking in Eze Bord-de-Mer, which is by the sea. If you’re looking at a villa up by the Moyenne or Grand Corniche, then the pricing drops dramatically.

Need more reasons to ignore m²? On top of all this, agents routinely lie about the m² size of villas, and they get inspectors to lie too. The only way to know the real m² is to have your own, independent inspector measure it.

Need even more reasons? As agências imobiliárias também manipulam o mercado, comprando propriedades a preços 5x ou mais acima do valor de mercado, para fazer uma venda a um preço superior ao de qualquer outra villa vendida naquela área. Esta é a mesma tática de manipulação de mercado usada em outras indústrias focadas no luxo, como a mercado de arte. They do this so they can point at that sale in an attempt to justify their far-above-market asking prices, and so that they can manipulate the publicized average m² prices.

Now that you understand that you can't trust anything m²-based that you read online, here's how to estimate the actual m² pricing averages:

How to Estimate the Villa’s Market Value

Any offer should take into account the current state of the market, so before you start on the instructions below, read our expert French Riviera real estate market predictions.

Method #1: Compare to the Neighbors

É mais fácil do que você pensa! Você só precisa olhar para as outras propriedades próximas que foram vendidas e ignore todos os preços por m².

As you learned above, the notaires are forced to list villas and apartments that have sold on a government website, known as ‘DVF’. It has an interactive map of France which allows you to click on the area of ​​your choice to see the prices of ALL villas that have recently sold, purchased by anyone — SCI’s and corporate purchasers included (but remember: this site has incorrect m² info). Note: the prices listed include TVA (tax).

Insider tip: The website House Prices France has DVF sales data going back much farther than the official DVF website (10 years versus DVF’s 5 years — which is useful because the data from the Covid housing bubble years is not representative of the current market prices). The only thing it’s missing is the plot size (so you’ll need to look at DVF if you want to know that and see the land outlined / cadastral map). It shows the data on a Google Earth-style satellite-view map which is far superior to DVF’s satellite view. Note that you need to be patient as it sometimes takes the prices overlay a few seconds to load.

Here’s a typical example…

Esta é uma vila normal e nada de especial, atualmente à venda em uma parte menos desejável de Ezé, up a steep, poorly-maintained communal lane. Despite having a lot of road noise and facing East, it’s listed at an absolutely insane asking price. No villa has ever sold for anything close to that m² price in Eze, in recorded history. But that didn’t stop the listing agents from trying to outbid other agents to secure the listing for their agency.

It will sit on the market until the owners are desperate, at which time it will likely sell for around €1 to €1.5 million. It’s been for sale for 8 years so far (6 of them without a price reduction), and –no surprise– still hasn’t sold.

In the meantime it’s listed as a vacation rental. From 2019 to 2025 it was listed as 379 m² and €6 million. Since 2025 it’s been listed as 323 m² and €4.5 million. It’s still not selling — because it’s actually only worth about €1 million.

Ao verificar o site do governo DVF e Google Earth, podemos ver que a vila do vizinho provavelmente foi feita pelo mesmo desenvolvedor e tem o mesmo estilo e aproximadamente o mesmo tamanho (com base na área ocupada e nos pisos, conforme visto no Google Earth); foi recentemente vendido por 930.500€!

And another example:

This villa in the heights of Villefranche-sur-Mer is asking €4.6 million. It’s been on the market for 7 years with no offers. It’s 260 m² and needs complete renovation (it’s very 1980’s-style inside).

Here’s it is (on the left), next to the neighbors villa, which is more than twice as big:

And in the DVF data, you can see that the neighbor’s villa (which is much larger, at 670 m²) sold for €1.1 million at the height of the Covid pricing bubble (much higher pricing than before or after the bubble). Nearly all of the other villas in the nearby area sold for similar prices.

…and yet, the owner has been convinced by a dishonest agent trying to secure the listing, that their villa is worth €4.6 million, instead of the roughly €800,000 that it’s actually worth. Or else, they’ve listed it at a ridiculous price hoping that someone who hasn’t read this guide will get suckered. Or they’re listing it without the actual intention to sell, purely to avoid some of the property taxes that are applied in “zone tendue” areas (towns with housing shortages, like most on the French Riviera).

Method #2: Make a List

The first thing you’ll need to determine is what the historic pricing (based on actual sold prices) in the town you want to buy in is, and what the pricing will be in the future. To do this, we’ll teach you how to analyze and make a list of similar individual villas that have sold in the area directly nearby.

Step 1:

Either ask a notary to look up all the sales in an area on ‘Perval’, which only notaires have access too (they gatekeep it because it shows all the sales from 6 weeks old to when they started tracking sales), or do the research yourself.

The notary route:

Pick a notary’s office that lists “Consultation PERVAL” on its tariff (many in tourist areas do). Ideally one that’s very very far from the area (like in Lyon or Bordeaux, for example) so they don’t have incentive to delete lower-priced sales from the list.

• Example published prices: €60 for raw extract, €120 with commentary.

Email them with:

• area of town that the property you’re analyzing is in;
• how wide a radius you want (e.g., “same village” or “within 2-minute walk”);
• any filters (only detached houses, min 3 bedrooms, etc.).

The DIY route:

Or, you can look up past sales yourself–but you won’t be able to see sales from the last 6 months this way. It’s good for a preliminary search though. To do this, you should look up the property on House Prices France to check the sold prices of nearby villas, searchable by Google-Earth-style map (ignore the published m²):

Aviso: Real estate agencies try to manipulate the market by buying properties from each other at prices that are 5x or more above market value, to make a sale at a price that is higher than any other villa has sold for in that area. They do this so they can point at that sale in an attempt to justify their far-above-market asking prices, and so that they can manipulate the publicized average m² prices. So, if you see one or two sales that are far higher than market value, those shouldn’t be considered in your calculation of the average m².

Step 2 (optional, for accuracy):

Next, compare the map from o site de permissões de planejamento (search for the town in the top blue bar, then scroll down and click the green button to view all planning permissions) to the DVF website that lists sold properties with their prices. Click on all the properties that overlap (both have planning and sold) and note the correct m² from the planning permissions website (add the ‘existing’ to the ‘new’ m² to get the total).

Keep in mind that the planning permissions website is not updated frequently, so a villa might have been further expanded (or even knocked down and a new villa built on that plot) since the last update. You can always go to the local Mairie to inquire about specific villas and their latest planning permissions.

Step 3:

Make a list. To calculate the market value of villas in the same area, you’ll need to make a list of the nearby sold villas that are in the same style (Provencal versus modern, as they are priced differently), look closely on House Prices France e guess the average m² sold price of those villas (based on your estimate of the real m² size) and add screenshots of the villas to your list.

Here’s an example of the list you’ll need to build (that you can use as a template) using a comparison for a villa in Eze. Here’s what it looks like in PDF form (made by print –> custom page breaks –> save as PDF). Here’s another example (this one is of Beausoleil) in a simpler format.

Step 4:

Steps 1 to 3 will give you a ballpark price range. Then, to find out where in that range esse villa fits, you look at these factors, which either put it higher or lower in the range:

1. What is the quality of the villa and is it well-built? Is the building itself very high quality, middle-of-the-road, or low quality? Does it have things that good builds have, like a ‘vide sanitaire’ gap (mini-basement area so that mold doesn’t build up on the bottom floor), etc?
2. Are the interior appliances and finishings, kitchen, bathrooms, floors, etc. luxury or basic?
3. Does the villa come with extra space not included in the ‘habitable’ m² — a pool house or guest house / apartment? If so, add value. If not, subtract.
4. Figure out if the villa is in a more or less expensive part of that area / town. For example, areas closer to the water are much more valuable.
5. How is the view? Could it get blocked in the future? A fantastic, unobstructed sea view increases the value. Seeing neighbors or other villas in the view lowers it. This is less true in areas where most of the villas have a great view, like Eze.
6. Is the style of the villa modern or an older style? New, modern villas sell for considerably more per m² (and have many, many more buyers who want them — including wealthy buyers, who will sometimes pay above market value) than traditional, classic, Provencale, ‘modern-style’-Provencale, or outdated-looking styles.
7. When was the villa built? Newer villas sell for more money and require less repairs. Older villas likely need work to update the electrical, plumbing, roof, sewer, and other problems, so take that into account.
8. Then factor in if it needs renovations, and what that will cost. If it doesn’t, that makes it more valuable, but if it does, that pushes it down in value quite a bit.
9. If the land is buildable, so you could expand the house, that would add a small amount of value, but if not, it would remove value. If it’s in a red zone, the price should drop about 20%.
10. Factor in how much land is included and the quality of the jardins, pool, garage, etc.
11. Does the villa use a shared driveway? This lowers the m² value, and adds regular maintenance costs (as well as potential legal disputes) that you’ll need to budget for.
12. Is there a normal-sized swimming pool? If there’s no pool, can one be built? (Make sure to verify that it comes with valid permissions first!) If you’ll need to build it, then deduct double the cost of the pool from the price. If it’s not guaranteed that you can build a pool, then the value drops by about 40%, and you should seriously consider not buying, as you won’t be able to rent it easily (or at all) as a vacation rental, nor will it be easy to resell.
13. Will there be noisy construction nearby? (Check building permits here.)
14. Is it in a community, walking distance to a school or in a guarded domaine? This increases the price. If it’s isolated, that decreases the price.
15. Then check if there’s other factors that would lower the price, such as a train within earshot, being overlooked, a bumpy driveway, low mobile signal, no fiber, or ugly power lines, or road noise — all of which would significantly lower the value.

Another part of determining what a villa will sell for is finding out how long it’s been on the market. Since agents likely won’t tell you the truth (or they’ll just tell you how long they’ve had the listing), the best option is to get the diagnostics reports and the mandat (the agreement to list) from the agent, and look at the date on them. Then you’ll know that it’s been for sale for pelo menos that long. (BUT since diagnostics reports are only valid for three years, if the villa has been on the market for more than three years, the diagnostics might have recently been re-done and show a more recent date.)

If it's been on the market for more than a few months, there's a reason: either the price is much, much too high, or there are serious issues with the property. The longer it’s been on the market, the lower your offer should be.

That will tell you where in the m² price range to value it. You should also take into account the trajectory of the market (here’s how to tell if prices are rising or falling). This will give you a price that you can justify in a letter to the seller.

If the seller accepts, then you can get surveys done to see if the m² is accurate, if the villa needs electrical or plumbing upgrades, etc. and based on that you can further adjust the price before putting the offer in a legal contract with the notaire (whom you should have selected in advance).

Method #3: Get an Appraisal / Valuation

If you’re very interested in a property, and the owner needs more convincing to get to the market price, then you can pay for an appraisal / valuation. But remember — not all sellers really want to sell, or will listen to logic / reason. The only way to truly know if a seller was misinformed by their agent and really wants to sell, is to have a discussion directly to the owner.

To get an appraisal, contact the bank where you plan to get your mortgage. They will have a list of appraisers that they use. Also ask them how long the appraisal is valid for, so it can be used for the mortgage (otherwise you’ll end up paying for it twice). Banks always make you pay for an appraisal as part of the cost of setting up the mortgage (it costs about €3000), but usually this is done after visiting the notaire. However, you can choose to do the appraisal sooner, and use that appraisal for bargaining with the seller / proving that the price should be lower.

To choose an appraiser, ask their process and ask if they go based on the m² villa sizes that the notaires publish. If they say yes, then don’t use them. You need an appraiser who understands that the m² listed by the notaires are incorrect, otherwise they’ll appraise the villa at roughly three times higher price than market value.

Don’t Waver!

Here’s how the real estate (and many other markets) work: One uneducated buyer overpays for something, and then all the brokers and agents point to that sale and yell “see? this is the real value of all villas!” Don’t listen. You know the real market value, and it’s based on the majority of sales, not one or two sales that were overpriced.

Make your offer directly to the owner if you can (you can make a pedido para obter informações de propriedade de qualquer villa) or else do it via a notaire, explaining that it’s based on the market value, and stand firm. Don’t negotiate, or the seller will know they can squeeze more out of you and it’ll be harder to reach a market-value deal. Don’t let agents confuse or manipulate you. Stick to your price.

If they say no, you can tell them to come back to you if their property doesn’t sell, and if you haven’t found something else by then, you may still be interested. If they’re a serious seller, this tactic is likely to get you a good price — eventually.

If they’re not a serious seller then they won’t take your offer unless you dramatically overpay, which you should absolutely not do (if you’re in a rush to find housing, it makes more financial sense to find a yearly rental while you continue to look for a market-price villa). Buying real estate on the French Riviera is all about patience. You will find a great villa at market value eventually. (It typically takes years of looking.)

The best situation is to find a serious seller whose villa doesn’t have any major issues, but where it hasn’t sold because it’s overpriced. Then you use this tactic and offer market value (which could be, in many cases, much less than half of the asking price!) Keep checking in, and eventually when the villa doesn’t sell, they’ll come back to you when they’re desperate to sell (when the time has run out on their personal situation) and at that point you might even be able to negotiate an under-market price to complete a quick sale.

Have patience, as buying real estate is much like marriage — if you make the wrong decision it can be a very costly mistake and long-term commitment that’s not easy to back out of.

Aqui está uma lista de (dishonest) things agents say. It’s very important to look at the list regularly so you don’t fall for their lies.

Comprar uma moradia? Leia isto primeiro!

Quando estiver pronto para procurar um imóvel, leia nosso guia completo para comprar imóveis na França. Estes guias explicam como estimar o valor de uma propriedade real valor, como obter o melhor preço e evitar preços excessivos, o que observar, como evitar golpes e muito mais.

Primeiro, para compreender o mercado imobiliário em França, é necessário compreender como o preço por m² é uma farsa gigante. Então, você pode passar para os outros guias:

Nosso guia para onde o mercado está indo includes: French Riviera real estate market predictions, current & historic pricing trends in the market, and why prices will continue to fall. Plus, supplementary guia para russos e seu impacto no mercado imobiliário da Riviera Francesa.

Nosso guia para listagens de imóveis inclui: como encontrar moradias para venda, o que procurar, desinformação e avisos, leilões e execuções hipotecárias, compra direta dos vendedores, por que o tempo é tudo e a razão pela qual apenas cerca de metade das vendas de moradias são listadas publicamente.

Nosso guia para golpes e segredos Inclui: avisos sobre os truques antiéticos que agentes, notários, vendedores, incorporadoras e construtoras usam para extorquir mais dinheiro de você. Esta é uma leitura obrigatória e o guia para denunciantes que os profissionais do ramo não querem que você veja.

Nosso guia para corretores de imóveis inclui: as coisas desonestas que os agentes lhe dirão, como funcionam as agências imobiliárias, os agentes de compradores e os localizadores de propriedades, por que você deve evitar agentes ilegais e não locais e em quem confiar (um aviso importante).

Nosso guia de coisas importantes para descobrir inclui: relatórios e pesquisas de diagnóstico, sol e microclimas, possíveis problemas com a vista, impostos habitacionais, idade, acesso à Internet e móvel, zonas de perigo (vermelhas), riscos à saúde, questões de privacidade e espaço, problemas próximos, o que você ' na verdade, possuirei adições e estruturas ilegais, por que estão vendendo, como verificar e muito mais.

Nosso guia para coisas a considerar inclui: seu real custos, problemas com a compra de uma villa 'recém-renovada', aprendizagem sobre crimes e invasores locais e perguntas a fazer a si mesmo.

Nosso guia para o processo de compra inclui: negociar o preço e a oferta inicial, escolher um notário honesto, comprar no azul, a oferta oficial e o depósito, usar um SCI, armadilhas contratuais, o período de reflexão, o que fazer antes de entregar o dinheiro e o assinatura definitiva.

Nosso guia para depois de comprar inclui: armadilhas de seguros, dicas para segundas residências, aluguel de villa, reformas e o que saber sobre contratação de pessoas.

Guia para vendedores: Como definir o preço da sua villa para que ela seja vendida.